Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-25 1.472140 1.537113 1.604581 1.680097 1.762540 1.850131 1.950646
2026-02-01 1.384509 1.470303 1.562327 1.669036 1.790230 1.924661 2.086579
2026-02-08 1.319979 1.418831 1.527378 1.656605 1.807892 1.981545 2.199238
2026-02-15 1.267658 1.375515 1.496163 1.642875 1.818984 2.027080 2.297260
2026-02-22 1.234168 1.350507 1.482830 1.646896 1.848504 2.093458 2.422710
2026-03-01 1.185580 1.304969 1.442356 1.615073 1.830940 2.098668 2.468123
2026-03-08 1.147819 1.270192 1.412532 1.593790 1.823982 2.115163 2.527484
2026-03-15 1.117957 1.243367 1.390720 1.580671 1.825649 2.141584 2.600674
2026-03-22 1.107741 1.239478 1.396168 1.601211 1.870772 2.227041 2.762443
2026-03-29 1.102017 1.240519 1.407289 1.628872 1.926001 2.328988 2.957116
2026-04-05 1.081365 1.222288 1.393407 1.623186 1.935629 2.367319 3.058529
2026-04-12 1.064642 1.208291 1.384186 1.622898 1.952109 2.415742 3.179466
2026-04-19 1.034873 1.177662 1.353476 1.593771 1.928339 2.405705 3.207748
2026-04-26 1.015531 1.159611 1.338276 1.584701 1.932077 2.436302 3.306232
2026-05-03 0.996554 1.141448 1.322273 1.573754 1.932309 2.461146 3.396840
2026-05-10 0.978063 1.123383 1.305791 1.561395 1.929660 2.480960 3.480065
2026-05-17 0.967169 1.114703 1.301231 1.565094 1.950327 2.538163 3.637579
2026-05-24 0.943827 1.089385 1.273976 1.536155 1.921110 2.513418 3.636747
2026-05-31 0.925246 1.069868 1.253968 1.516771 1.905402 2.509674 3.676333
2026-06-07 0.910351 1.054834 1.239565 1.504810 1.900329 2.522955 3.751001
2026-06-14 0.907824 1.055868 1.246657 1.523536 1.942787 2.618208 4.006154
2026-06-21 0.907775 1.060084 1.258060 1.548725 1.996372 2.736577 4.332333
2026-06-28 0.896743 1.049468 1.248901 1.543550 2.001560 2.769955 4.472662